2014.12.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.12.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The oil index model suggests that prices will stabilize in the 1300 area in the first quarter of 2015.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here.

2014.03.31 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.12.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.12.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.09.19 Silver Cycle Model Chart

A model's progress is shown above. The model currently suggests that silver prices will be rising into the first quarter of 2015. To go to the original model posts, click on the figure captions.

2014.12.12 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.12.12 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model is suggesting that we may have seen a low in gold price over the past couple of months. Based on cyclical factors, a rising price is forecast into 2015 and beyond.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2014.10.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.11.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.11.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

This has been a good predictive model thus far, and suggests there is further downward pressure on the index through the end of 2015.  A previous model is shown below and here on the blog.

2014.02.07 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Silver prices continue to track model predictions quite well.  The model suggests silver prices may have reached a bottom for the next few months, and a price of about 1700 is expected by the end of 2014.  A previous iteration of the model appears below and here on the blog.

2014.09.19 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model is predicting a very high probability of a turn to the upside in the next few weeks, based on the outlier Z-score greater than 3 "sigma.". If the reversal does occur, then gold prices should quickly rise to well above 1400 by the end of the year.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2014.10.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.17 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.17 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The cycle model continues to suggest lower prices for the index beginning in 2015. According to the model, index price should stabilize around 1400 before the next drop to the 1300 area begins at the end of 2014.  A previous iteration of the model is shown here and below.

2014.02.07 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model continues to perform adequately.  The model is suggesting a pseudocycle for silver where prices range from about 1500 to 2100 through the end of 2015. A previous iteration of the model is shown here and below.

2014.08.22 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.03 Gold Cycle Model and Z-score

The gold cycle model, which has performed well in the past, continues to suggest a strong upward pressure in price since the model is past its turning point. The gap between the model prediction and the actual price continues to widen, as noted by the rising Z-score. It would be very unusual if the divergence was to exceed 2.5 on the Z-score without a reversal.  A previous model is shown below and here.

2014.09.05 Gold Cycle Model and Z-score

2014.09.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

XOI.X 2014.09.26 Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X cycle model successfully predicted the turning point for the index, and now suggests a bottom of 1100 towards the end of 2015.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here in the blog archive.

XOI.X 2014.02.07 Cycle Model Chart

2014.09.19 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.09.19 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model suggests lower prices for silver until the end of the year, reaching a price of about $1600.  This model has been performing well, as can be seen from the chart below and here. As previously noted, the model has undergone a phase change going forwards, resulting in a pseudo-cyclical price curve going forwards. The silver price appears to be range bound between about $1600 and $2200 until at least the beginning of 2016.

2014.01.17 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.09.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.09.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart and Z-score

I am presenting the usual gold cycle model chart with the addition of a Z-score.  The Z-score is a measure of the deviation of the predictive curve from the actual price. The farther this measure diverts from "0" the greater the likelihood that the actual price curve will revert to the predictive price curve.  Currently, the model is suggesting higher prices.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here.

2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.08.22 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.08.22 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model which has performed well has undergone a phase transition* going forwards. The pseudo-cyclical pattern is new and suggests that silver will be bound in the range of $15 - $20 over the next year. You can see that by comparing it with an older model shown below and here.

2014.03.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

 

















*What I mean by a phase transition is that the model has not had a structural change, ie it is the same model.  However, the model parameters have changed enough so that the shape of the predictive curve is quite different going forwards when compared to the older model. 

2014.08.15 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.08.15 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X model successfully predicted a top in the price curve, and suggests that a bottom may be reached in the late 2015 time frame. For comparison purposes, a previous iteration of the cycle model is shown below and here.

2013.12.06 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.07.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.07.25 Gold Cycle Model

The gold cycle model seems to be suggesting that a multi-year bottom for gold is now past and that gold prices are headed higher with an approximate price maximum of 2700 in the late 2015 time frame.A previous iteration of the gold cycle model can be found here and below.

2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model

2014.07.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.07.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X cycle model strongly suggests a trend change has occurred in the index, and prices are heading into a bottom of about 1000 towards the end of 2015. A previous cycle model is shown below and here.

2014.02.07 XOI.X Cycle Model

2014.06.27 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.06.27 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model continues to confirm we may have passed a multi-year bottom on the gold price curve. The previous model run from 2014.05.30 is shown below and here. I have also placed the long term gold cycle model chart reaching out to 2020 here.

2014.05.30 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.06.15 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.06.13 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The Amex Oil Index cycle model is predicting a top in the price curve.  According to the model, the price should drift lower to approximately 1000, bottoming in November, 2015.  The model has performed well in the past, as shown below. Obviously, geopolitical factors may come into play at this time, and these factors are not reflected in the model structure.

2014.02.07 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

A pointer to the chart above as it previously appeared in the blog is here.

2014.05.30 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Gold Cycle Model 2014.05.30

The gold cycle model suggests the low point for gold is past, and prices should continue to increase over the next year. An iteration of the gold cycle model from 2014.03.20 is presented below and here.

Gold Cycle Model 2014.03.20

2014.05.16 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.05.16 XOI.X Cycle Model

The Amex Oil Index cycle model is performing well, and suggests the index is reaching a top in the June timeframe. A previous iteration of the cycle model can be found here as well as below.

2014.02.28 XOI.X Cycle Model

2014.05.02 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.05.02 Silver Cycle Model

As you can see in the previously posted charts, the silver cycle model has performed well, and continues to show lower prices over the next 6 months. I have received a lot of mail regarding the obvious question of why the silver and gold models are divergent and yet have a history of good performance for the longer term. Nothing in my "modeler's toolbox" allows me to honestly answer that question. This is what the structural models show, and like all models, they are very crude approximations of reality, or as some may argue, of unreality! Shown below is a previous model from February, 2014, also available on the blog here.

2014.02.14 Silver Cycle Model

2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model

The gold cycle model suggests we may have passed an intermediate low for gold prices. Currently, the model is predicting a gold price of $1750 at the end of 2015. While this has been a good model thus far, I want to enter a caveat - which is that the silver cycle model does not corroborate it going forward, at least by historical gold:silver ratio.  You can find all the previous gold cycle models in the archives, and the last iteration is below.  Note I have changed the time scale and price scale to accommodate forward price action.

2014.03.20 Gold Cycle Model

2014.03.31 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.03.31 XOI.X Cycle Model

The Amex oil index cycle model continues to perform well, and suggests a top in the index in the June, 2014 time frame. The previous iteration of the model output is shown below and here.

2014.02.28 XOI.X Cycle Model

2014.03.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.03.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model is performing well, and continues to suggest lower prices for the rest of the year. I understand that there is a divergence with the gold cycle model which has no explanations outside of pure speculation.  The models are what they are. The previous model prediction is shown below and here.

2014.02.14 Silver Cycle Model Chart