Saturday, April 26, 2014

2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model



















The gold cycle model suggests we may have passed an intermediate low for gold prices. Currently, the model is predicting a gold price of $1750 at the end of 2015. While this has been a good model thus far, I want to enter a caveat - which is that the silver cycle model does not corroborate it going forward, at least by historical gold:silver ratio.  You can find all the previous gold cycle models in the archives, and the last iteration is below.  Note I have changed the time scale and price scale to accommodate forward price action.


2014.03.20 Gold Cycle Model




















3 comments:

beetlejuice said...

It's a big pitty that your silver and gold cycles don't line up togetherin terms of direction, however that would be just way too easy and well, it's never that easy is it?
If it were there would be no losers and thus no winners.

I wish one would start to diverge, which looking at both side by side has to be the case very soon. Unless the both hold true, but then that would be the first time in history if that were the case.

Then again who says it can't happen. Maybe some out of ordinary event causes a broad economic/currency event that drags down Ag whilst propelling Au as the only real confidence hedge?

Confused with all that?.......I now I am.

Paolo said...

Thanks beetlejuice, it's never easy, you are so right. I think the simplest explanation is that one of the models, either gold or silver, is probably wrong going forwards. Of course, they could also both be wrong! On the bright side, it looks like we may find out in the next few months.

Anonymous said...

The silver is probably correct as it's pretty bearish. The gold breakout simply doesn't look realistic. [Sept 2014].