Sunday, February 23, 2020

2020.02.21 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2020.02.21 Gold cycle Model Chart

The higher prices predicted from the last model run in June, 2019 seen below on the blog have materialized, and the current model run suggests prices rising and then leveling off near ~ $2100 by Fall, 2020. There is a possibility of a right phase shift, but the model estimates prices < ~$1500 have a probability of < ~5% and prices > ~$1600 have a probability of  > ~90% in the next few months. The medium-term AI model is on buy as of 2021.02.18.  All models are wrong but some are useful.

Sunday, February 16, 2020

2020.02.14 Silver cycle Model Chart

2020.02.14 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Many readers inquired about updates, and in some cases about my health. Thank you for contacting me.  I am all right, but I had a lot to do especially related to trading on my medium-term models, which are performing better than I expected. I do not suggest you do the same because I am not allowed to give specific investment advice, it is very dangerous to your portfolio if you do not know how to hedge and adequately manage risk, and I do not intend update them as fast as they sometimes change in this volatile environment.  They exist on this blog for informational purposes only.

I apologize for not having provided any cycle model updates since June.  I have to decrease the frequency of these updates because of my time management, but I can change the medium-term updates so that they take less time to format and post, so I encourage you to satisfy your curiosity and peek in on the Medium-Term Model Output link which opens in a new window.[edit:2/17/20, see my comment below, a lot of people viewed the incorrect html and no one informed me that it was not displaying correctly, so I decided to drop the page from the blog as I do not have time to edit excel-generated html code so it is well received by the blogger engine.]

I will not be updating any cycle models except XOI.X, Gold and Silver. The Fed repo actions have put the business cycle to sleep, for now.  Commodity based cycle models continue to have an adequate performance if looked at with a long term perspective. I urge readers to go back a couple of years where well known analysts were predicting either gold below $1000 or even more absurdly above $5000 none of which has come to pass. I think this these models provide some information and perspective on the price trend, even if the predictions tend to lag due to unavoidable right phase shifts, which over time have become a "feature" of the predictions.

I have made a few valuable business contacts as a result of this blog, and enjoy hearing from readers with various opinions and views of these markets - there are rewards for the time I spend on this project. For some reason, I get more mail than posts.

The silver model performed reasonably well if you compare the price action to the last June 2019 run. I expect some right phase shift, but the model does suggest a solid price support at $17.00 going forward.  For readers who bought the long term silver model in the past couple of years, please contact me and I will be happy to send you the current model with projections to 2030 at no charge.

A very belated good luck to all readers for 2020!