Saturday, August 23, 2014

2014.08.22 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.08.22 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model which has performed well has undergone a phase transition* going forwards. The pseudo-cyclical pattern is new and suggests that silver will be bound in the range of $15 - $20 over the next year. You can see that by comparing it with an older model shown below and here.

2014.03.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

*What I mean by a phase transition is that the model has not had a structural change, ie it is the same model.  However, the model parameters have changed enough so that the shape of the predictive curve is quite different going forwards when compared to the older model. 

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