Sunday, September 7, 2014

2014.09.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.09.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart and Z-score


















I am presenting the usual gold cycle model chart with the addition of a Z-score.  The Z-score is a measure of the deviation of the predictive curve from the actual price. The farther this measure diverts from "0" the greater the likelihood that the actual price curve will revert to the predictive price curve.  Currently, the model is suggesting higher prices.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here.

2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

"The Z-score is a measure of the deviation of the predictive curve from the actual price. The farther this measure diverts from "0" the greater the likelihood that the actual price curve will revert to the predictive price curve. "

My though, sounds like pure B.S.

Paolo said...

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/309762/probabilities-using-z-scores-help

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your work Paolo! Good to know how you apply Z-score here.

Anonymous said...

The gold and silver model are contradicting each other. Any changes to your gold model since the last two weeks amidst the ongoing carnage? Thanks!

Paolo said...

I'll try to run it over the weekend and post it.

Anonymous said...

Looking forward to a rerun of gold model. The astro and cycle work seem to say a bottom is at hand, although Ewaves are saying a 970-1080 bottom sometime in 1st Q 2015. The dollar may have a lot to do with it. also..much gratitude for your work... looks like VIX is following your model.