2019.06.21 Gold Cycle Model Chart

 

2019.06.21 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model suggests a steady rise in the gold price for the next several months. Looking at the previous gold model run here, it is likely that the right phase shift of the predictive curve has ended, which gives some added weight to the notion that prices are indeed headed higher.  It appears that the long basing process may have ended.  The previous run of the model is below and here on the blog.

2019.02.22 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2019.06.21 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2019.06.21 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model is behaving well, and prices have increased since the last update of March.  The model suggests higher levels for the index going into Summer and Fall.  A previous model run is shown below and on the blog here. I had a three month vacation from the blog due to other exigencies.  I appreciate readers who contacted me to ask if the blog was still going to be updated.

2019.03.01 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2019.03.01 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2019.03.01 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model shows a local maximum for silver prices has been reached as of the beginning of March, 2019. Prices are predicted to remain in a fairly tight range until July, 2019. Overall, model performance has been adequate, and a previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2019.01.29 Silver cycle Model Chart

2019.03.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2019.03.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The cycle model continues to suggest higher levels for the index going forwards.  There remains the possibility of a right phase shift, but the probability of much lower prices for the index is quite small, if the model is valid, of course!  A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.  The medium term model is still on Buy as shown here.

2019.01.11 XOIX.X Cycle Model Chart

2019.02.22 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2019.02.22 Gold Cycle Model Chart

As mentioned after the previous gold cycle model run, there appears to be a slowing down of the right phase shift, suggesting higher prices for the metal going forwards to the end of 2019.  The previous model run is shown below. The medium term gold model is back in buy mode.

2019.01.25 Gold cycle Model Chart

 

2019.02.15 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2019.02.15 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

The NASDAQ cycle model is suggesting a local maximum in the May, 2019 time frame, followed by a drop to 6000 by September, 2019. I will remind readers that the equity cycle models are less accurate than their commodity based brethren, and also that timing of reversals is usually more accurate than the magnitude at the time of the reversal, as shown below and here on the blog. The medium term  model output for NASDAQ is still on buy, as shown here.

2019.01.18 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.29 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.29 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model is suggesting a local maximum in the February/March 2019 time frame.  The previous run suggested an increase in silver price as shown below and here on the blog.

2018.12.14 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

There is a hint here that the months long right phase shift may be on hold.  Much lower prices seem highly unlikely according to the decadal cycles, but we will have to see what happens in the next few months. Perhaps the Au market senses the end of QT.  A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.  On the medium term model output page you can see that GLD has been on a buy since 2018.08.21.

2018.12.07 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.20 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.18 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

With the usual caveat that equity based cycle models have less predictive value than their commodity based versions, this model seems to have captured the low in timing if not in magnitude, and is now suggesting a local maximum in the May, 2019 time frame. A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.  The medium-term timing model still has NASDAQ on buy as shown here.

2018.11.21 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X cycle model appears to have predicted the timing of the local minimum, but not the magnitude, which is common for these cycle models.  Going forwards, the model suggests a rise in the index over the next 6 months, and that the probability of lower values for the index is quite low, even with the possibility of a right phase shift.  A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.  The medium term model for USO is also on buy as of 2018.12.31, as seen here.

That said, I wish all readers a prosperous and healthy New Year!

2018.11.25 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart