Econocasts

Saturday, September 27, 2014

2014.09.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

XOI.X 2014.09.26 Cycle Model Chart


















The XOI.X cycle model successfully predicted the turning point for the index, and now suggests a bottom of 1100 towards the end of 2015.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here in the blog archive.


XOI.X 2014.02.07 Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, September 20, 2014

2014.09.19 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.09.19 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















The silver cycle model suggests lower prices for silver until the end of the year, reaching a price of about $1600.  This model has been performing well, as can be seen from the chart below and here. As previously noted, the model has undergone a phase change going forwards, resulting in a pseudo-cyclical price curve going forwards. The silver price appears to be range bound between about $1600 and $2200 until at least the beginning of 2016.


2014.01.17 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, September 7, 2014

2014.09.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.09.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart and Z-score


















I am presenting the usual gold cycle model chart with the addition of a Z-score.  The Z-score is a measure of the deviation of the predictive curve from the actual price. The farther this measure diverts from "0" the greater the likelihood that the actual price curve will revert to the predictive price curve.  Currently, the model is suggesting higher prices.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here.

2014.04.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart