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| 2016.05.28 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart |
I have worked on and off for the past six months on this new model featuring the NASDAQ index. It has been tested on out-of-sample data and passes with flying colors. Nevertheless, once again a reminder that all models are wrong but some are useful. The model suggests a change in the long term direction of the index beginning in the mid-June time frame.
5 comments:
Thank,s for the hard work
pieter, you are welcome and thanks for dropping by!
you are doing a great work sir.Always looking forward to the new posts.
Thank you.
Hi Paolo,
Really interesting work you've done, which supports my (vague) non-technical expectations of a market turn in late June. The significant dip into EoY is however surprising in magnitude, although I'm probably highly-conditioned by central bank support over past several years. The phase-changes are primarily of importance to me, as I prefer taking positions at "decision" points and then building positions in the direction of the trend with appropriate trailing-type stops.
I'm also expecting a turn in the price of oil for a few months too, before upward resumption into EoY and a small dip by early 2017. The magnitude of the Z-score will be instrumental in considering a return to the trend (assuming that it deviates in the first place). Not sure what'll happen after that though - I should get around to purchasing your long-term XOI chart. When was its last update and are any more expected soon?
It's very tempting to draw a link between a "surprise" mid-June rate hike by the Fed, but is definitely confirmation bias at play! I do really like how your work is "price-only" and limits the potential for analyst bias, even if unintentional and unconscious.
Kind regards,
Mr. Anon
Hi Paolo...crude looks like putting in a top here at around $50. Does your XOI model suggest something similar as well? Thanks!
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