2015.04.27 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2015.04.27 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model continues to show increasing upward pressure on prices with a Z-score strongly suggesting an upward bias in prices going forward. I have had some questions regarding the predictive curve. This cycle model, like all of the cycle models, is adaptive in that the model is updated with new data and run before the output is reported on the blog. The predictive curve is the statistically most likely path going forward, however, it is approximate insofar as the model has error.  Therefore, as new data is added, there is some "stretch" allowed given the error of the various cycle parameters. This is why over time the shape of the predictive curve may change.  The previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2015.04.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2015.04.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.04.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X cycle model correctly predicted the rise of the index to a local maximum in the April 2105 time frame. If the model is correct we should expect a fall in the index price beginning in the early May 2015 window.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2015.03.13 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.04.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2015.04.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model continues to suggest upward pressure on prices going into 2016. It appears we are at the end of a 16 + month basing process. A previous iteration of the model is reproduced below and is shown here on the blog.

2015.03.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart