Sunday, April 5, 2015

2015.04.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2015.04.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model continues to suggest upward pressure on prices going into 2016. It appears we are at the end of a 16 + month basing process. A previous iteration of the model is reproduced below and is shown here on the blog.

2015.03.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart


Anonymous said...

Hi Paolo - hope you had a great Easter, thanks for the gold model update and the reminder about likely Z-score reversals. It will indeed be interest to observe if a steady rise in gold manifests (natural volatility accounted for). At least a precedent for such a strong trend has been established with USD and crude recently, plus the general markets up this point.

Technically speaking, gold has established strong weekly support beneath recent lows (basis multi-timeframe Bollinger Bands) and has now gapped up for effectively a second time since then. The recent loosening of the London Gold Fix is also "interesting" to say the least.

At this moment, silver seems to be underperforming with regards to the gap-up, as gold has gapped up above the recent spike high but silver has not.

Early days though,

Mr. Anon

Anonymous said...

Hi Paolo,

It now seems to be a critical time for gold and silver, where the former has to break out soon over its recent spike high at 1225 $/oz. Otherwise it'll likely follow the silver path to sub-1100 $/oz for the "lower low" that numerous EW practitioners predict, before a sustained long-term rise. Even conventional analysts are postulating an H&S pattern and no break above recent spike highs. This is alongside the never ending drumbeat of macro commentators proclaiming the death of gold.

I'm still long gold with a stop around 1155 $/oz and tentatively long Brent Crude with a tight stop, but am unsure that the latter will hold. I'm unfamiliar with the market mechanics of Crude and entered on technicals alone. The most recent iteration of your XOI model suggests a corrective rally before new yearly lows, which corresponds to my own expectations.

How are your neural trading systems reading gold and XOI this week?

Thanks again for sharing your work,

Mr. Anon

Anonymous said...

Hi, do you know what the Z score is for VIX now at 12?

PayDay said...

What is Vix z score?

Is vix LT chart still valid?