Sunday, March 15, 2015

2015.03.13 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.03.13 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















Interpreting the model at this juncture reveals a few possibilities. In the immediate time frame, there is increasing upward pressure on the index price. However, it may also be that the peak might have been a couple of months early compared to the model prediction. Given the past performance of the model, taken together it suggests that Fall 2015 should encompass a low in the index curve, and another turning point.  Previous iterations of the model are available on this blog.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Paolo - is your VIX neural or forecast model unchanged from the last iteration? Based on a number of separate considerations, I'm expecting a turn within the next few weeks. I've no idea however how far any down move (if any) will progress and I'm aware of my bearish inclinations at this time.

A number of independent viewpoints from solar-lunar considerations (odd but seems to have statistical significance) to ending diagonals from both EW and traditional charting suggest a near-term high at least.

This along with other measures (sentiment, fundamentals) seem to be continually defied by market action, but I wonder if large players will liquidate ahead of rate rises, either now or later in the year.

Thanks again for sharing your work,

Mr. Anon