2014.10.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model is predicting a very high probability of a turn to the upside in the next few weeks, based on the outlier Z-score greater than 3 "sigma.". If the reversal does occur, then gold prices should quickly rise to well above 1400 by the end of the year.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2014.10.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.17 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.17 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The cycle model continues to suggest lower prices for the index beginning in 2015. According to the model, index price should stabilize around 1400 before the next drop to the 1300 area begins at the end of 2014.  A previous iteration of the model is shown here and below.

2014.02.07 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model continues to perform adequately.  The model is suggesting a pseudocycle for silver where prices range from about 1500 to 2100 through the end of 2015. A previous iteration of the model is shown here and below.

2014.08.22 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.03 Gold Cycle Model and Z-score

The gold cycle model, which has performed well in the past, continues to suggest a strong upward pressure in price since the model is past its turning point. The gap between the model prediction and the actual price continues to widen, as noted by the rising Z-score. It would be very unusual if the divergence was to exceed 2.5 on the Z-score without a reversal.  A previous model is shown below and here.

2014.09.05 Gold Cycle Model and Z-score