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| 2018.06.22 Gold Cycle Model Chart |
The right phase shift continues, and I suspect that it may continue for several months. This is due to model error in both cycle length and phase for several decadal cycles at play during this time. The model does suggest that much lower prices for the gold fix are highly unlikely going forwards, but that the longer term basing at ~$1300 +/- 20% can be extended. Extrapolating the model error as noted by the Z-score, I will hazard a guess that the right phase shift will end in the October and November 2018 time frame and either the model dies, or the price does begin to more closely match model prediction.
1 comment:
Mid-Sept The price of gold is now teetering on the edge of $1,200 and looks set to fall further. The usual buying from India, however, does not seem to be materializing, so further falls look immanent.
Could well be around $1,000 by December, unless something quite substantial happens to change the trend.
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