2016.10.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The phase change to the right continues, though the pace may have slowed down. There is some information to be gathered from the predicted magnitude suggesting that going forwards, prices much lower than the current levels are highly unlikely. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.09.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.10.14 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.10.14 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

The model suggests we may have seen the peak for the index for a while, and it occurred a few weeks later than model prediction. A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.09.02 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.10.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.10.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

A major divergence between the predicted price and actual price has occurred, but there is no rightward phase shift in the predictive curve at the moment.  Looking back at the model history, this level of divergence where the Z-score exceeded 3.77 occurred a few times.  In 1973.08.15, 1974.07.04, and 1980.03.27.  On all those occasions, the actual price resolved to the upside within a six week period.  So, the model may be broken, always a possibility, or a similar historical reversion will occur within a short time period.  A previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.08.12 Gold Cycle Model Chart