2016.03.26 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.24 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

The DJIA cycle model is now at an extreme divergence between actual and predicted level for the index. Note that in comparison with a run of the same model on 2015.12.31 shown below and here on the blog, a phase change has occurred, in the opposite direction I expected. The current run of the model suggests an even steeper slope down for the rest of the year, whereas the December run suggested a flat period for index prices between march and September.  Also note that I had to adjust the Z-score scale as the divergence is heading towards -2.5. This is the largest divergence since Spring, 1981; August 1946; Spring 1943; Spring, 1930; October, 1929.  The lowest Z-score for the model was -3.53 in September, 1929.  Remembering that all models are wrong but some are useful, my current interpretation is that there are extremely powerful convergent  downward cycles at play here, from yearly to decadal,  but the caveat is that central bank liquidity and forex management do not enter into the model whatsoever.

2015.12.31 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.11 XOI Cycle Model Chart

The XOI cycle model suggests that the index may have traversed its low for the year. The multi-month phase change which has pushed the predictive curve to the right may have ended.  The high positive Z-score, as shown below and here on the blog, indicated a high chance of a positive reversal which did occur.

2016.02.12 XOI Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The current silver cycle model illustrates the nice reversal to the predictive curve that was indicated on the last run of the model on 2016.02.12 as shown below and here on the blog.

Notice that the difference between the actual curve and predictive curve, as indicated by a large negative Z-score suggested a reversal was highly likely.

Inasmuch as we note no evidence of a phase change for now,  I would interpret the model as indicating that a local maximum in price may occur in the May 2016 time frame.

2016.02.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart