|2016.02.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart|
The XOI.X cycle model predictive curve shows both a shift to the right from an error-appropriate phase change as well as an amplitude change. Looking at the charts below from previous iterations, the high Z-score was resolved to the upside to touch the predictive curve. Because the predictive curve has a positive slope going forwards, any continuing phase shift is not likely to be associated with a major amplitude change to the negative. I would interpret this as another data point supporting the premise that XOI.X is not likely to go much below 800 going forwards. And finally, remember that all models are wrong, but some are useful. The previous charts can also be accessed by clicking on the captions.
|2016.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart|
|2015.12.14 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart|