Sunday, February 14, 2016

2016.02.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X cycle model predictive curve shows both a shift to the right from an error-appropriate phase change as well as an amplitude change. Looking at the charts below from previous iterations, the high Z-score was resolved to the upside to touch the predictive curve. Because the predictive curve has a positive slope going forwards, any continuing phase shift is not likely to be associated with a major amplitude change to the negative. I would interpret this as another data point supporting the premise that XOI.X is not likely to go much below 800 going forwards.  And finally, remember that all models are wrong, but some are useful.  The previous charts can also be accessed by clicking on the captions.

2016.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.12.14 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart


ezkappdo said...

your "dip" in oil prices keeps moving later on the calendar - I expect one more move with the dip in the equities as demand drops and production continues unabated and storage becomes a problem....same may be true for precious metals and real rise for these may be delayed for months... However love your models and motto, "wrong but helpful". thanks so much for your hard work look forward to your updates!

Paolo said...

Thank you exkappdo. I am happy that there are readers like yourself that take the information from these models and construct their own narrative of future directions, based on the model behavior over time, as one data point of many that enter into the calculus of prediction. As I mentioned once before, everyone gets the model they deserve, and in your case, you deserve the best! grin.