2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The past few weeks suggest that the multi-month phase extension of the predictive price curve for Au may have finally ended.  The price curve is above the predictive curve at this juncture, which suggests some mild downward pressure on prices in the near term, but not likely a break in the overall long term rise. Post hoc one can make up a series of narratives "explaining" why this is occurring now, as opposed to a year ago.  A previous iteration of the model from October, 2015 is shown below and here on the blog.  If you compare them, it may inform your judgement regarding how useful or useless these 'wrong' models are, depending on your perspective.  I get some comments where naive individuals think that because the gold price didn't rise exactly on a particular date, the model is useless. The shortest answer I have is that they are all wrong, but quite useful to me, and to some, but not all readers.

2015.10.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.19 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.19 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

The divergence between actual and predicted suggests that we should see a downward drift in the price curve in the March to April time frame. Going back to June of 2015, the first iteration of this model seems to be holding up fairly well, as shown below and here on the blog.

2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X cycle model predictive curve shows both a shift to the right from an error-appropriate phase change as well as an amplitude change. Looking at the charts below from previous iterations, the high Z-score was resolved to the upside to touch the predictive curve. Because the predictive curve has a positive slope going forwards, any continuing phase shift is not likely to be associated with a major amplitude change to the negative. I would interpret this as another data point supporting the premise that XOI.X is not likely to go much below 800 going forwards.  And finally, remember that all models are wrong, but some are useful.  The previous charts can also be accessed by clicking on the captions.

2016.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.12.14 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model suggests silver may have found a bottom for the immediate time frame. The actual price has deviated from the predicted price enough so that according to the model, silver prices should experience a negative correction on the way to a local maximum of ~$16 in the May time frame.
Below is the previous iteration of the model, also shown on the blog here.

2015.12.18 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The phase extension that has been ongoing for the past year in the gold model may have ended. There are robust yearly and decadal cycles all adding up to a gradual rise in gold price for the rest of 2016.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2015.06.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart