Monday, January 11, 2016

2016.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart


















Over the past couple of years, this has been a reasonably well-performing model. Currently, based on historical cycles, it is suggesting a very strong upward bias in the index. Looking at a run from about a year ago appearing below, posted in February of 2015, one can see that the timing of the minima of the predictive curve has extended forwards by about four months, which is well within the error of the model.



2015.02.06 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

4 comments:

pieter smit said...

Thank,s for the update Pablo

pieter smit said...

In October model update , there is a target low date mentioned Oct 9 , so presuming that still all right , one could add 4 months to that , arive at early Febr 2016

Paolo said...

Hi Pieter, first off, thanks for dropping by and Happy 2016! There is error both on the magnitude of the price, as well as the time of reversals, and one should keep that in mind. The other thing to keep in mind is that these models are updated with new data and run every time I post. While the model structure remains the same, there is error-related wiggle room both on the time estimates for max and min, as well as the level of the max and min. So far, the extension is within the error range of the model, which means there is still some information to be gained. That information is the magnitude of the min, or max. For example, the chance that XOI.X can drop another 20% is pretty low, based on the model because these phase changes do not change the index price at the predicted min or max to any great degree. However, the timing of the low could well extend another 4 months, but I would be surprised (and highly annoyed) if the index price at the low would be much different.

pieter smit said...

Ok Thank,s Paolo for explaining