2015.01.21 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.01.21 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model is performing well, and continues to suggest higher prices into the Spring Equinox.  By chance, the predicted and actual price curve are coincident.  Note the Z-score approaching zero. I will make a long term silver cycle model chart and data available by the end of this week. Some previous iterations of the model are shown below and here on the blog.

2015.01.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.10.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.01.16 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2015.01.16 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model continues to suggest higher gold prices going forward. I wanted to illustrate the use of a Z-score using the differences between the current chart and a previous iteration of the model from October, 2014 shown below and also here in the blog. The high Z-score in the chart below, which passed "three sigma" implied a high probability of reversal, which indeed occurred.  Given the reasonable performance of this commodity model, I will be providing an extension of the model to 2025 as I did with the XOI.X model.

2014.10.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2015.01.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.01.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model suggests a rising price with a maximum before Spring Equinox in 2015.  The pseudo-cyclical structure continues to emerge.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here.

2014.10.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.12.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.12.31 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model strongly suggests higher prices through 2015 and into 2016. The usual caveat is that the time estimates for price curve maxima and minima are more accurate than the price predictions at the turns.