Saturday, April 20, 2013

2013.04.19 XOI.X Oil Index

The oil index cycle model is performing well. I suspect that there are weather-related cycles involved in the continuing rise.

2013.04.19 DJIA Cycle Charts

I think there is increasing evidence of a  global economic slowdown and the DJIA cycle model is reflecting this in terms of historical cycles. The Fed has indeed managed to extend the credit cycle by at least two years, but its asset buying QE seems to be having less of an effect on the currently modeled cycle.

2013.04.19 Silver Cycle Charts

The silver cycle model is performing well, though it appears to be at some variance with the gold cycle model. As a monetarily dimorphic metal with both monetary and industrial uses, again, at the risk of over interpreting these data, it would seem that for silver, the continued downward pressure on prices may reflect the global economic slowdown.

2013.04.19 Gold Cycle Charts

I was going to wait until the end of the quarter, but events in the PM markets suggested an update on the various cycle models. I hope to put the other cycle model charts on the blog in the next day. If the model continues to perform well, it appears to have signaled a bottom in gold a couple of months earlier than predicted by the model, which is normal error. As usual, I would give more credence to the timing of the turning point rather than the actual price.  At the risk of making too much of these data, it seems as if the end of the contracting credit cycle may herald an increase in the money supply appearing at the end of this year, followed by an increase in the gold price.