I was going to wait until the end of the quarter, but events in the PM markets suggested an update on the various cycle models. I hope to put the other cycle model charts on the blog in the next day. If the model continues to perform well, it appears to have signaled a bottom in gold a couple of months earlier than predicted by the model, which is normal error. As usual, I would give more credence to the timing of the turning point rather than the actual price. At the risk of making too much of these data, it seems as if the end of the contracting credit cycle may herald an increase in the money supply appearing at the end of this year, followed by an increase in the gold price.
No comments:
Post a Comment