Monday, September 2, 2013

2013.08.30 Gold Cycle Chart

The gold cycle model is right on target, but that is more luck than anything else. There is an error associated with the price curve, but in this case 'the mean' prediction happens to lie on the actual price curve.  One can see this is not always the case!   From now until the end of the year, the model predicts gold to remain range bound in the 1400 +/- area. Once again, for Elliott enthusiasts, it looks like a Wave II is in the offing in early 2014, before a rise to 1800 +/- by the end of 2015; remembering that these models lose price accuracy faster than time accuracy in terms of turning points when looking forwards.

1 comment:

beetlejuice said...

Hi Paolo, if either one of your silver or gold models is incorrect it would currently appear that silver is the culprit as historically there has never been such a large divergence between the two metals as the models suggest going forward.
That said, yesterdays action appears very impulsive to me and how coincidental, or not, that the metals had such a reversal on a new moon date yet again.

BTW, have you ever considered running a USD model, it would be very interesting to see how it correlated with the metals and the stock markets.

Great work!