Here are the updated charts for silver. The model continues to perform well, and suggests continued downward pressure on silver prices. A brief note to the gold and silver people that continue to post or e-mail me weird notions on how commodity markets run. I'm not sure why gold and silver are the only two markets that attract this behavior; I have some theories but they are better left unsaid. You may have noticed the blog is moderated, so you waste your time writing the post, and my time putting it in the spam bin. That is probably enough said for now.
If you have gotten this far, I'll make a note that market volatility is predicted to increase beginning this week in both short term and long-term models. You can download the long term model for VXX here.
2 comments:
I found an article that also does projections for silver prices based on 85 week, 72 week and 234 week cycles. Obviously there are more factors to be considered to get a more accurate projection (his long term projections do not agree with your long term chart, but are more on the line of your gold chart). As in the past gold & silver have been positively correlated (sp?), so I have trying to think of an event, etc. that would break this relationship, but have not come up with anything yet.
Anyway if you want to look at his chart the article is "Silver Cycles: What Next?", GE Christenson, post date June 10, 2013.
Would you consider doing your charts on a white background? I frequently like to make notes & draw lines on the charts - the black background makes this difficult.
bat75 - I like your newer charts as it appears that you got the bugs out - keep up the good work.
PS: We exchanged comments mid to late Jan. of 2012 re the many variables that screw up projections.
Hi bat75, thanks for the pointer and your comments. I use a different method for figuring out the cycles, and while all three noted (72, 85, 234 weeks) my cycle model starts with 1953 +/- weeks and the cycle period goes down from there. I am also wondering why the gold cycle chart is markedly different. I don't have any answers yet...but I will definitely let readers know if something changes with the models.
JI'll note again that all these cycle models, when they are useful, are more useful as general pattern indicators than for shorter term trading. For shorter term trading, in my hands, a neural pattern recognition model works best. I wish I had the extra CPUs to run those for gold and silver, but right now I am focused on prediction of volatility indices. One advantage of the cycle models is that they are much less CPU intensive than the neural models, hence I can provide them without too much cost!
Thanks and look forward to seeing you here again!
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