Friday, November 4, 2011

2011.11.04 Weekly DJIA Long $ Short Term

Today, the model converged within a couple of minutes, and with a better fit after chugging all night to converge yesterday.  I am still expecting a major correction with a steep downward slope, maybe in the next week or two,  if the model is working out.

Since these cycle models try to adapt to new data, the predicted turning points may change with time, so it is helpful to look back at earlier models to get an idea of model behavior.

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Wednesday, November 2, 2011

2011.11.02 Interim DJIA Long $ Short Term

You can see that there is a smaller ~ 3 to ~4 month cycle here superimposed on the larger set of cycles headed down. The large improvement in overall fit results because it appears to operate back to 1896 with some variations on the theme.

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Sunday, October 30, 2011

2011 10.30 Weekly DJIA Long $ Short Term

After updating, the model discovered a short period cycle resulting in a much better overall fit. Had the model not converged, it would have been thrown out.  There is still a high discrepancy between the actual and predicted price, though not quite large as before.

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