Structural equation modeling for objective financial forecasts
Thanks for the chart.In the last year I have become more and more convinced of the cyclic nature of markets.I don't think we have the Super Model of cycles just yet. But what we have so far like the Elliott Wave, Economic Confidence Model, and your charting software. I think combining all these resources can help identify major turning points.Hope you will keep posting updated charts.
Thanks, I'll keep posting them as time allows. A short version answer to your previous question, in case you missed it, is this cycle chart for the DJIA with data to May 24.http://econocasts.blogspot.com/2011/05/blog-post.html
Could you do a chart on oil? This could serve as a 'confirmation' chart for your other analysis. Say, if oil leads the recovery, or if equities lead the recovery. Which one will claw it's way out of the bottom first?If oil trades much higher, relative to US equities (after the crash), than the next bull market will definitely be in China. Interestingly, if the markets has a huge parabolic move upwards, while oil stays low, than you may have predicted when the next major source of energy will come online.I'm just thinking out loud here, thanks for the free charts. This is Zero_Sum from Daneric btw.
Zero-Sum, thanks for your thoughts on oil. Your hypothesis is quite reasonable. I'll see what I can do in the next few weeks, since it takes quite a lot of CPU time. What time series do you suggest would be the best proxy for oil?
I think to have a large of a view as possible, would be best. However, if that is not possible, I believe the robust bull market from the 90's would be more than reasonable. I believe we have to give back some of what we took, in a manner of speaking in the next down-move. The past tells us about the future.Measurements on the yearly charts should provide us with a good overview. Thanks considering the idea. -Zero Sum.
Another thought, though frightening in nature, this could also tell us when the next major war is going to break out. If the increase in the price of oil is exponential, than I think the upcoming conflict could be in the Middle Eastern area. -Zero_Sum
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