Saturday, November 26, 2016

2016.11.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.11.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The rightward phase shift continues, and the model is predicting higher values for the index going forwards. Previous iterations of the model are shown below on the blog.  I mentioned in a post below that my USO neural net trading model, which suggests trades about 6 times a year just went on Buy on 11/17/2016. I will post when it goes to Sell.

5 comments:

pieter smit said...

Hi Paolo ,,thank you the update ,,could you have an update for gold /silver

Pieter

Paolo said...

Pieter, I'm working on them and they should all be up by end of this week. Thanks for dropping by! Paolo

Anonymous said...

Thanks again Paolo - your work is greatly appreciated indeed! I'm eagerly awaiting your USO sell signal as a supplement to my own considerations.

"Nearly all [USO] gaps fill within several days (most within 24 hours) with massive skew for those that don't (hundreds of days). I'm confident that if the gap doesn't fill by EoM, then it won't fill for quite sometime (beyond the horizon for swing trading)." [Nov 21st]

I was surprised that the gap did fill within 72 hours, but it cleared the overhang ahead of OPEC. My upside target of $56-$58 into EoY or Q1-2017 now looks to be in play, with a stretch target just below $60 itself by Christmas. I'd then expect a correction into EoY or early Jan down to current ATHs around $52 (which itself should be breached to the upside next week). The ultimate goal into late January is $70, though even I would be surprised at that unless USD corrects. Volatility measures such as range expansions are supportive to the upside.

Longer-term looking only at fractal analogue of WTI from 1996 to 2004 (confirmation bias alert!) along with macro consideration, I'd then expect a few months of sideways action before a summer dip, leading to an autumn spike to higher-highs. It roughly fits with your
XOI models both current and long-term, but even I wonder what could propel WTI to such highs given macros, unless its an inflationary pop and Dollar weakness.

Presently, I'm awaiting a further long entry point from now into early next week. For reference, recent weekly engulfing candles (assuming it holds into tomorrow) have limited pullbacks the following week before more upside.

Kind regards,

Mr. Anon

Anonymous said...

Excellent - the limited pullback last week has setup an opportunity towards $60 into EoY. I expect the gap-up this Monday morning to fade somewhat as an opportunity to hedge short or seek new long positions.

After a pullback from $60 (using 96-04 fractal analogy), I'm expecting a move to upper targets of $66 and then $72 by EoM January (following a pullback to $60). Basically spike-to-spike moves, after which I'd expect high-volatility sideways movement. Further out, there should be some summer weakness before the potential for new YTD highs.

Kind regards,

Mr. Anon

Paolo said...

My USO neural model went short on 12/12/2016.