Saturday, May 9, 2015

2015.05.08 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.05.08 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X cycle model suggests we may have passed a local maximum in the index price, and there is strong long term pressure for lower prices going forward into October 2015.  Looking at a previous iteration of the model shown below and here on the blog, note the divergence between the predicted and actual curve at the last data point. At the time, this suggested some downward pressure on the price index, which in fact occurred.

2015.02.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart


Anonymous said...

Hi Paolo,

Thanks for your continued postings - I'm just surprised that there aren't more commenters here. Your XOI seems to be best performing model and I'm patiently biding my time for a final wash-out low later this year. Due to broker-related issues, I'll probably have to use Brent or WTI as a close proxy, but the correlation is naturally quite high (at least by eye).

Kind regards,

Mr. Anon

Paolo said...

You're welcome. I wonder if the correlation might be improved by modeling a lag time between curves for the index and for Brent/WTI. Making note to self....