|2015.04.27 Gold Cycle Model Chart|
The gold cycle model continues to show increasing upward pressure on prices with a Z-score strongly suggesting an upward bias in prices going forward. I have had some questions regarding the predictive curve. This cycle model, like all of the cycle models, is adaptive in that the model is updated with new data and run before the output is reported on the blog. The predictive curve is the statistically most likely path going forward, however, it is approximate insofar as the model has error. Therefore, as new data is added, there is some "stretch" allowed given the error of the various cycle parameters. This is why over time the shape of the predictive curve may change. The previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.
|2015.04.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart|