2016.03.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.03.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The current silver cycle model illustrates the nice reversal to the predictive curve that was indicated on the last run of the model on 2016.02.12 as shown below and here on the blog.

Notice that the difference between the actual curve and predictive curve, as indicated by a large negative Z-score suggested a reversal was highly likely.

Inasmuch as we note no evidence of a phase change for now,  I would interpret the model as indicating that a local maximum in price may occur in the May 2016 time frame.

2016.02.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The past few weeks suggest that the multi-month phase extension of the predictive price curve for Au may have finally ended.  The price curve is above the predictive curve at this juncture, which suggests some mild downward pressure on prices in the near term, but not likely a break in the overall long term rise. Post hoc one can make up a series of narratives "explaining" why this is occurring now, as opposed to a year ago.  A previous iteration of the model from October, 2015 is shown below and here on the blog.  If you compare them, it may inform your judgement regarding how useful or useless these 'wrong' models are, depending on your perspective.  I get some comments where naive individuals think that because the gold price didn't rise exactly on a particular date, the model is useless. The shortest answer I have is that they are all wrong, but quite useful to me, and to some, but not all readers.

2015.10.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.19 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.19 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

The divergence between actual and predicted suggests that we should see a downward drift in the price curve in the March to April time frame. Going back to June of 2015, the first iteration of this model seems to be holding up fairly well, as shown below and here on the blog.

2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart