2016.09.23 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.23 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

The rightward phase shift continues, though still suggesting lower prices for the average.  This is not surprising given the model uses data going back to 1896. There are a few multidecadal cycles for which a year or two of variance is well within error. Summing up: the chance for a price reversion is high, but so is the chance of QE 4,5 and 6! My biased view is that the model shows the kinds of cyclical pressures that the Fed is avoiding with its countercyclical monetary policies, with much success as measured by the DJIA price, for now.

2016.09.02 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.02 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

I posted this a bit earlier than usual because the NASDAQ cycle model is not experiencing a right phase shift at the moment, but seems to indicate that a major top may be forming given the predictive curve.  If in the next few weeks NASDAQ begins to descend, the model suggests much lower prices going into Spring 2017.  A reminder that all models are wrong but some are useful.  Previous iterations of the model are found below and here and here on the blog.

2016.08.19 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.07.29 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.08.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.08.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The cycle model is exhibiting a right phase shift which has flattened the predictive curve. Nevertheless, the model suggests some upward pressure on prices going into the Fall and through the end of the year. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.06.03 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart