2019.09.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model correctly predicted a decrease in price right after the model run shown below, and here on the blog.  Of interest, the model is not showing a phase shift in time, but a magnitude shift in price. If the model is correct, we should see a local minimum in price some time in the next month, followed by a rising price into 2017.  Of course, remembering that all models are wrong, but some are useful.

2019.08.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X model shows a continued right phase shift, and a major discordance between the predicted and actual index level. I note that a similar discordance occurred twice before, with Z-score > 6, on 1987.10.19 and 2008.10.15.  Both times the index resolved to the upside within 6 weeks.A previous chart of the model output is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.08.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.23 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.23 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

The rightward phase shift continues, though still suggesting lower prices for the average.  This is not surprising given the model uses data going back to 1896. There are a few multidecadal cycles for which a year or two of variance is well within error. Summing up: the chance for a price reversion is high, but so is the chance of QE 4,5 and 6! My biased view is that the model shows the kinds of cyclical pressures that the Fed is avoiding with its countercyclical monetary policies, with much success as measured by the DJIA price, for now.

2016.09.02 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.02 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

I posted this a bit earlier than usual because the NASDAQ cycle model is not experiencing a right phase shift at the moment, but seems to indicate that a major top may be forming given the predictive curve.  If in the next few weeks NASDAQ begins to descend, the model suggests much lower prices going into Spring 2017.  A reminder that all models are wrong but some are useful.  Previous iterations of the model are found below and here and here on the blog.

2016.08.19 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.07.29 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart