2015.08.28 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.28 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

The DJIA cycle model continues to suggest downward pressure on the index price. The model predicted a top in the DJIA  as shown below and on the blog.

2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.21 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.21 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The index price dropped well below the prediction, suggesting a similar situation as occurred in December, 2014 which was followed by a very rapid reversal. Below and on the blog is show the predictive cycle model run from late 2014.

2014.12.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.14 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.14 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

Given the DJIA cycle model prediction from 2015.07.17 shown below and on the blog, the model is performing well. Given my previous experience with cyclically structured equity models, while I'd like to state we have seen the top in the DJIA for a couple of years at least, it's prudent to reiterate that this only means that there are strong secular, decadal, and yearly/seasonal cycles converging and all pointing to lower index prices. If the Fed restarts QE, all bets are off.

2015.07.17 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.07 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.07 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

The new DJIA cycle model seems to be performing well. I would caution readers that the previous DJIA models tested well on out-of-sample tests, but then managed to crash and burn. A reasonable interpretation is that from a historical  business cycle perspective, dating to 1896. there is strong downward pressure on the DJIA.  The first iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.03 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.08.03 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model is suggesting higher prices peaking in the October, 2015 time frame. The model is performing relatively well, and given we are at an inflection point, it will be informative to see if the model holds over the next two months. The previous iteration of the model, which suggested a drop in price,  is shown below and here on the blog.

2015.06.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart