2015.06.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.06.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model is performing relatively well, and suggests increasing upward pressure on silver prices beginning in the August 2015 time frame. As noted previously on the blog and below, the silver price did drop in accordance with the model prediction.

2015.06.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.06.19 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.06.19 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X cycle model is performing well, and suggests continued downward pressure on the index price. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog. 

2015.02.06 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

At the risk of another modeling disaster, here is the "new and improved" DJIA model. Readers will recall the agonizing demise of the last DJIA cycle model.  I added cyclical frequency modulation to the usual amplitude modulation and the model backtested quite well, predicting the last close of the DJIA within 200 points from data ending 31DEC2014. Take it with copious salt and spices, and remember that all models are wrong but some are useful. On the plus side, the model goes back to 1896, so there are strong secular and multidecadal business cycles in play. On the other hand, there are shorter cycles that now have more error, which I am attributing to liquidity factors in the past 10 years that are new to the structure.

2015.06.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2015.06.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

According to the model, the gold price is reaching a highly "oversold" level and there is increasing pressure for a rise in prices going into the Solstice and beyond. Readers are urged to study the long term gold cycle chart here to have an idea of how often the Z-score reaches above this level. 

2015.06.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.06.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model suggests mild downward pressure on silver prices until the August 2015 time frame. A model run from early this year shows what to expect with extreme Z-scores. In March, 2015 a major divergence between the predictive curve and the actual price is seen, suggesting a very strong possibility of reversal, which subsequently occurred.  This is shown below and here on the blog.  And finally, a reminder that "all models are wrong, some are useful."

2015.02.23 Silver Cycle Model Chart