2014.03.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.03.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

The silver cycle model is performing well, and continues to suggest lower prices for the rest of the year. I understand that there is a divergence with the gold cycle model which has no explanations outside of pure speculation.  The models are what they are. The previous model prediction is shown below and here.

2014.02.14 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2014.03.20 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.03.20 Gold Cycle Model Chart

The gold cycle model is suggesting that we should be looking for a gradual rise in gold prices over the rest of 2014.  Inquiring minds will note that this model is at variance with the predicted silver price over the same time frame. The previous iteration of the model is shown below.

2014.02.07 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2014.03.07 DJIA Cycle Chart and Z-score

2014.03.07 DJIA Long Term Cycle Chart

2014.03.07 DJIA Long Term Cycle Chart Z-score

I developed vs 3.00 of the DJIA cycle model after VS 2.0 failed to converge. Unfortunately, I don't have as much confidence in this model as I do in the other cycle models because even though it passes the predictive testing on historical data, so did the other two DJIA models that failed going forward. Given the model prediction above, it should be apparent by mid-Summer 2014 if the model is on track. Assuming of course it does not "blow-up" before then!  I have included the Z-score for the model, which answers the question: How far out of line is the past prediction compared to historical data? As you can see, already we are at an extreme similar to 2008.75.

2014.02.28 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2014.02.28 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The Amex Oil Index cycle model continues to perform well within a 1 month window, and successfully predicted a rise in the index over the past few weeks. If the model is correct, higher prices will continue until the late summer of 2014.  The previous model is shown below as well as here.

2014.02.07 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart