2014.01.29 Gold Cycle Chart

Gold Cycle Chart 2014.01.29

The gold cycle model has not changed much over the past month. It still shows gold prices bottoming in the late February/early March time frame.  For comparison purposes, below is the last gold cycle model posted.

Gold Cycle Chart 2013.12.31

2014.01.24 DJIA Weekly close cycle model chart

DJIA Weekly Close Cycle Model 2014.01.24

As promised, and somewhat late, I constructed a new cycle model for the DJIA based on weekly close data, which eliminates daily fluctuations from the analysis. My reward for the work was a model that has a better overall fit, but it has all of the problems of the previous daily close cycle model - namely that it predicts, based on past seasonal and decadal cycles, a convergence of these cycles to the downside in the 2014 - 2015 timeframe but the current divergence between predicted and actual prices remains.  Taken together, I would interpret the model with liberal amounts of skepticism, doubt and possibly some salt.  For your viewing pleasure, here is the last iteration of the daily close cycle model for the DJIA.

DJIA Daily Close Cycle Model 2013.11.27

2014.01.17 Silver Cycle Chart

2014.01.17 Silver Cycle Model

2013.11.15 Silver Cycle Model

The silver cycle model is performing well, as can be seen by comparing the current model with the previous model output from 2013.11.15. A comparison of the two also shows how much better the timing prediction is in contrast to the price prediction at the turn points when looking forward two months.  In any case, it looks like silver prices may rise to a short-term high in the first quarter of 2014, around March.