2013.10.21 Silver Cycle Chart

The silver cycle model continues to perform well. If the model is accurate, we should be seeing lower silver prices between now and the end of the year.

2013.10.18 DJIA Cycle Chart

If the DJIA cycle model has any internal validity, based on cycle parameters of the price time series extracted by the model since 1896, the DJIA is once again at a much higher level than would be expected by historical standards. Readers can see the Z-score of the model deviations for comparison to other manic eras. On the other hand, it is also possible that the model is incapable of capturing the recent changes in liquidity managed by the Federal Reserve, and hence it is "broken." In any case, one soft interpretation is that the DJIA is much higher than cyclical patterns indicate it should be, and we should see a very severe correction in the next few months. Nevertheless, given the performance of this particular model to date, I would maintain a skeptical view of the prediction.

2013.10.11 Gold Cycle Chart

Gold is following the predicted price cycle within model error. At this point, the predicted price is higher than the actual, suggesting some upwards pressure. The price attractor from now until the end of the year appears to be in the $1360 +/- area.

2013.10.04 XOI.X Cycle Chart

According to the cycle model for XOI.X, there are strong seasonal and decadal pressures pushing prices to the 1700 range by the end of the year. For Elliotticians, prices at the end of 2013 might represent the end of a wave 3 advance which began in the Fall of 2012, and the start of a 4th wave correction before prices reach 1850 +/- by the middle of 2014, which would be the end of the 5th wave.