2011.11.30 Interim Long Term DJIA $ Gold $ Silver

Index / Actual Price / Predicted Price / Z-score

DJIA / 12045.68 / 11079.58 / -1.65
Gold / 1717.00 / 1551.58 / -4.33
Silver /  3135.00 / 2855.05 / -2.53

My bias, given the low volume rally, is that the end of the month spike in the DJIA and PM's was an aberration and prices should adjust down in the very near future. For the DJIA, the predicted price is again at historical levels below the actual price, which has not lasted  longer than 5-10 trading days in the past. The same can be said for the PM's. The usual short term predictions will be available late Friday.


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2011.11.18 Weekly Short Term DJIA $ Gold $ Silver

I expect downward pressure on prices to continue. All three models converged immediately.

Index/Actual/Predicted/Z-score

DJIA/11798/11154/-1.10
Gold/1730/1586/-3.72
Silver/3225/2873/-2.96

Have a great weekend!

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2011.11.11 Weekly Short Term DJIA $ Gold $ Silver

The quick convergence of all three models suggests that if they are wrong, they are wrong in the right way. On the other hand, if they are still predictive, they are all stretching to historical maxima. This suggests if there is a reversal, it will be quite steep.

Index / Actual / Predicted / Z-score
DJIA / 12153.68 / 11252.09 / -1.52
Gold / 1764.00 / 1582.93 / -4.67
Silver / 3377 / 2906 / -3.85

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To save time, I will only post the long term predictions on a monthly basis, since week to week differences are trivial. If there is a major phase change in the model, as occurred with silver a while back, I will post it and note it. Have a great weekend!

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2011.11.08 Interim Short Term DJIA $ Gold $ Silver

All prices are close to historical extremes even after today.  If the past has any say, the actual price curves should now drop below the predictor curves.

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2011.11.04 Weekly DJIA Long $ Short Term

Today, the model converged within a couple of minutes, and with a better fit after chugging all night to converge yesterday.  I am still expecting a major correction with a steep downward slope, maybe in the next week or two,  if the model is working out.

Since these cycle models try to adapt to new data, the predicted turning points may change with time, so it is helpful to look back at earlier models to get an idea of model behavior.

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2011.11.02 Interim DJIA Long $ Short Term

You can see that there is a smaller ~ 3 to ~4 month cycle here superimposed on the larger set of cycles headed down. The large improvement in overall fit results because it appears to operate back to 1896 with some variations on the theme.

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