Sunday, November 19, 2017

2017.11.17 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.11.17 Gold cycle Model Chart

















As it turned out, the rightward phase shift in the gold cycle model continued, and while it looks  highly unlikely that the gold price will drop below ~$1300 going into 2018, there is no guarantee that the right phase shift will end soon. 

5 comments:

Diego said...

Thanks for the updates Paolo.

ezkappdo said...

Seems like all the models need to keep shifting to the right. Been doing that for a long time now....hope you have time for updates. thanks. Happy Holidays.

Paolo said...

Thank you both and I wish you both a good holiday season.

While the right phase shift is annoying, it does provide some information regarding the chances of a major shift opposite in polarity to the slope of the curve going forwards.

For example, I found it useful that for gold, at one point, there were some predictions for a drop to the $800-$900 range by credible analysts, which were anti-cyclical by this model and never materialized.

In gold's case, I think we are seeing a relatively long basing process with a lot of distribution but not much price change in relative terms. When the price does begin to move, if the model is somewhat useful, it should rise and not fall.

ezkappdo said...

yes sentiment was very low for gold and hopefully this rise will be significant and last for 2 or so months...

Paolo said...

I made an error in the data input for gold, which was incorporated both in the model and the chart. The data feed I use had the error, and it has been corrected. I also corrected it in the data input. The error was that the gold price for 2017.09.22 was actually 1297.00 rather than 1397.00. Hence the blip. I reran the model for data up to that time, and the effect was trivial on the predictive curve. Nevertheless, I apologize and will try to improve my quality checks on the input data going forwards.