Friday, April 15, 2016

2016.04.15 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.04.15 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

There is a slow right phase shift in the XOI model, however, the local minimum of the index price curve continues to scrape around 1000, suggesting that much lower levels for the index are much less probable.  The previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.03.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart


Anonymous said...

Hi Paolo,

At the present moment, this model is going from strength to strength! It's been intriguing to observe mainstream media and the blogosphere proclaim bearish projections, while the price of crude just grinds upwards. Its rather akin to equity markets, where a dominant underlying factor (QE) overrides the "crowd" expectations whether through fundamentals or technicals.

I'd venture that whatever is the dominant factor behind crude prices, usually only apparent during late stages or in hindsight, its "aligned" with the XOI model resulting in he model finding its "groove" so to speak. I'd suspect that such an occurrence is not the norm, but should be recognised and taken advantage of while it persists.

Mr. Anon

Paolo said...

I'm thinking that with a commodity like oil, some of the cyclical factors are due to relatively predictable lag times that occur between planning for increased production, followed by overproduction, oversupply, falling prices, cutback in production, etc. Whatever it is, it's nice to be "in the groove" as you put it.