Saturday, February 27, 2016

2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.02.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















The past few weeks suggest that the multi-month phase extension of the predictive price curve for Au may have finally ended.  The price curve is above the predictive curve at this juncture, which suggests some mild downward pressure on prices in the near term, but not likely a break in the overall long term rise. Post hoc one can make up a series of narratives "explaining" why this is occurring now, as opposed to a year ago.  A previous iteration of the model from October, 2015 is shown below and here on the blog.  If you compare them, it may inform your judgement regarding how useful or useless these 'wrong' models are, depending on your perspective.  I get some comments where naive individuals think that because the gold price didn't rise exactly on a particular date, the model is useless. The shortest answer I have is that they are all wrong, but quite useful to me, and to some, but not all readers.


2015.10.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart




9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Paolo,

Keep up the good work. I'm one of the readers that appreciates your postings, please disregard the haters. Your models are some of the best out there, and generally show the correct direction. That is the most important thing, and I think there's probably some people reading that are trying to daytrade your models, and expect perfect accuracy. They clearly have no experience in daytrading--it's hard, and best to be left alone. (I traded full-time). Anyway..Thanks again for posting your models.

wildbadbill said...

I second that!!!Love you work....

Paolo said...

Aw shucks! Thank you both. It's a long term view through a fuzzy lens, but it's probably better than none at all if interpreted within its limitations.

Anonymous said...

Maybe some readers just expect some kind of prophet (pun intended) without doing their homework. Neural nets are tools like anything else and to me are very valuable. Your nets are excellent. Thank you Paolo!

H2535 said...

Paolo,appreciate your sharing, these are very valuble information, as some frineds mentioned, your charts shwo the general direction. I have been checking your blog for long, it is in my daioy favorite. Just taught to say Thank you. :)

H2535 said...

Hello Paolo, Many thanks for sharing your works, your method is kind of unique and give a very good picture of general trend.I am your long term reader and your blog is in my daily check favourite list in browser.Thanks again.

Anonymous said...

agree!!! EZKAPPDO

Maria said...

Great work and thank y ou for shearing it. Great way to trade the trend. Is there any similarity with the cycles of charles nenner?
Best regards.

Paolo said...

Maria, thanks for dropping in. I am familiar with the work of Charles Nenner, though he does not share the full methodology. His interest in solar cycles suggests he may perform the same kind of time series deconvolution as I do - the gold cycle model has a solar cycle of 11.85 years which was "found" by the model. The same cycle appears in other of the time series I model, so by inference I think we probably have a similar approach. I'm glad you find the charts useful and best of luck!