Thursday, October 8, 2015

2015.10.08 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2015.10.08 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

The DJIA cycle model continues to converge rapidly, and is now at the point where we might expect the downward trend to resume.  Note there was a previous overshoot on the downside which corrected. Also, a good example of how factors not captured by the model, namely, the Fed getting cold feet on the promised interest rate rise, effect model performance. Look at the curves and guess when the Fed retracted the possibility of an imminent rise in rates.  Below is the first iteration of this model, which also appears on the blog here.

2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart


Anonymous said...

Would you mind running this model again? I think it will likely be correct even if it was a bit early.

Paolo said...

It all depends on the definition of "correct." I will run the model by next weekend, and thanks for dropping in!