Sunday, July 26, 2015

2015.07.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2015.07.24  XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

The XOI.X index cycle model is performing well. The model is suggesting an upwards correction before the continued drop in index prices towards the low in the October/November 2015 time frame. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.


Anonymous said...

Hi Paolo,

The XOI model is looking great for lower oil prices into the first expected rate hike by the Fed (difficult to imagine this has completely NO impact on crude prices). I've got a Q3 price target of $42 per barrel for crude and am still awaiting $1060 on gold within a few weeks, though the recent 2% intraday move on gold during Friday suggests that big buyers might be taking long positions.

My major difficulty is reconciling my expectations for a lower low in gold with the large Z-score > 4.0 that suggests an imminent reversal, though I'm aware that it could extend to 5.0 in the extreme. Is the most recent iteration still suggesting a high Z-score at the moment?

Thanks for the updates,

Mr. Anon

Paolo said...

Yes. I just ran an iteration with the data up to this AM's gold fix. The Z-score is 5.06, the actual price 1098.60 and the predicted price 1322.02. Historically, between Z-scores of 5 and 6 there are relatively sharp reversals. The one thing that continues to irk me is the difference between the gold and silver predictive curves in terms of the historical ratio.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Paolo! :-)

Mr. Anon