Wednesday, February 29, 2012

2012.02.29 Monthly Long Term Predictions: DJIA $ Gold $ Silver















































Happy Leap Day!  Gold  and silver have come back to the predicted curves today - the metal models were run with the London AM Fix for Wednesday, February 29, 2012. The DJIA model is still converging, but does not reflect reality.  I'm going to see what happens to it in the next month - though that's what I said last month!

The file used to generate the DJIA chart can be found here It covers the DJIA from 1900.01.02 to Leap Day..Please check my post below for additional details.

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3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello, good day, his load too steep ensure low in metals and in the Dow. Excuse my ignorance. Just find your blog. From already thank you.

Paolo said...

At the bottom of the charts above, I have placed a comma-delimited .txt file of the DJIA from 1900.01.02 to Leap Day. It's 1.2 MB.

The reason I have done this is because I began to look at when the predicted curve for the DJIA was lower than the Actual Price according to the Z-score, which I have included in the file.

It got to be pretty tedious pretty quickly, but here is an interesting start to an analysis.

What I did is show the date when the DJIA Z-score was LESS THAN the last Z-score for Leap Day. I then show what happened 3 months later - an arbitrary period of time. I have rounded the result.

M/D/Y Actual Predicted

11/15/1938 154.7 140.3
02/15/1939 144.6 144.0
----------------------------------
08/25/1937 181.7 164.0
11/25/1937 118.3 133.4
----------------------------------
02/06/1934 110.2 101.0
05/06/1934 95.5 97.7
----------------------------------
07/19/1933 103.6 92.8
10/19/1933 84.4 96.4
----------------------------------11/15/1932 65.3 59.6
02/15/1933 56.7 62.9
----------------------------------

And so on and so forth. I am not vouching for the accuracy of the time series nor for the calculations. However, I see a pattern here. Feel free to download the file and do your own explorations!

This does not mean that the DJIA cycle model is working out as expected. However, this gives me reason to continue to run it for a few months unless it fails to converge.

Rajeev Bharol said...

Thanks for sharing your work. Gold appears to converge....