# Econocasts

Structural equation modeling for objective financial forecasts

## Sunday, November 19, 2017

## Sunday, October 22, 2017

### 2017.10.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.10.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The silver cycle model suggests a December peak for the silver price. The Z-score suggests a high probability of a short term rise in the silver price. Over the past year, a Z-score of ~2 has adequately predicted turning points. A previous iteration of the model is shown on the blog and below.

2017.08.25 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

## Monday, September 25, 2017

### 2017.09.25 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

The XOI.X cycle model may have ceased its right phase shift, and is predicting much higher prices for the index. In support, the medium term model for USO is also pointing to higher prices. The previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.

2017.05.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

## Thursday, September 7, 2017

### 2017.09.06 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.09.06 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

The gold cycle model, much like the silver cycle model, may have stopped its rightward phase shift and is now suggesting higher prices for the metal going forward to the end of the year. The large difference between the model prediction and actual price suggests strong upward pressure on price with a very low probability of a pullback below ~$1200. A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2017.07.21 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

## Saturday, August 26, 2017

### 2017.08.25 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.08.25 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The silver cycle model is performing quite well, as the right phase shift in the predictive curve seems to have ended for now. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2017.07.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

## Saturday, July 22, 2017

### 2017.07.21 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.07.21 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

The gold cycle model predictive curve continues to shift to the right, suggesting a continued basing process for the actual price going forwards. What is quite remarkable is that the Z-score is now in record territory for positive Z-scores, but still just below the absolute value record of the Z-score which occurred in 1980.01.21 which was resolved in a few days. In other words, the actual price caught up with the predicted price. That said, it is also possible this model is useless at this time. My GDXJ model is still in buy mode as of 2017.07.21, and I still have to execute the run for GLD which I will post here at the end of the weekend. In the shorter term, the neural models are much more accurate. One enhancing factor is that they also have inputs for volume related transformations. The previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.

2017.05.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

## Saturday, July 8, 2017

### 2017.07.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.07.06 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The silver cycle model continues to perform reasonably well, and continues to suggest we are approaching or perhaps at a cycle low. A previous iteration of the model appears below and here on the blog.

2017.05.26 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

## Tuesday, May 30, 2017

### 2017.05.26 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.05.26 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The silver cycle model is performing well, as can be seen from the previous iteration below and on the blog. A Spring peak in price was anticipated. If the model is correct, we should see a temporary low in the August/September time frame. As expected, the turning points are better predicted than the magnitude at the turning points, something to keep in mind when interpreting these cyclical models.

2017.03.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

## Saturday, May 27, 2017

### 2017.05.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.05.26 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

The predictive model continues its shift to the right. However, the large divergence in the predictive curve to the upside, as metered by the high Z-score, strongly suggests that prices should not fall significantly going forwards. Previous iterations of this cycle model can be found n the blog below.

## Sunday, May 14, 2017

### 2017.05.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2017.05.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

The model may still be useful, even as the predictive curve continues to shift to the right but suggesting that much lower prices are not likely in the medium term.The USO medium term model continues to point down, which points to a longer basing process before the any significant rise in price.

## Saturday, April 1, 2017

### 2017.03.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.03.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The lack of any phase shift suggests that the peak in May/June has a high probability. Note that the magnitude of the peak has changed, but the timing is relatively consistent from the past iteration. The previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2017.02.10 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

## Sunday, March 5, 2017

### 2017.03.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.03.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

The gold cycle model continues to predict higher prices for the metal, however, there is still some right phase shift of the predictive curve, which has also projected a decrease in the magnitude of the price going forwards. Meanwhile, the GDXJ medium term model has shifted into sell mode on 2017.02.27, however, the medium term model for GLD is still on buy. This is consistent with a long base formation we see in the gold price over the past year. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2017.02.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

## Sunday, February 26, 2017

### 2017.02.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2017.02.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

2017.02.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

## Saturday, February 11, 2017

### 2017.02.10 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.02.10 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The silver cycle model is performing well, and previously suggested a rise in price based on the inflection point at the beginning of 2017. While there may be some continued right phase shift in the predictive curve, the model is calling for another inflection point in late Spring of 2017 which based on past performance could extend into Summer or early Fall. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.12.30 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

## Sunday, February 5, 2017

### 2017.02.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.02.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

The gold cycle model continues to predict higher prices for the metal going forwards. The end of 2016 may have seen an inflection point if the model is valid. Both the GDXJ and GLD medium-term trade models are aligned, as they have been in buy mode since the end of 2016, which lends additional support to the hypothesis. You can go to the medium term model out page on the link above or by clicking here. The medium-term models are updated on Fridays, and I will post any changes that occur on the weekend. The previous gold cycle model is shown below and here on the blog.

2017.01.06 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

## Thursday, February 2, 2017

### 2017.02.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2017.02.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

The XOI.X model predictive curve continues to shift to the right, and suggests that much lower prices are highly unlikely, while pressure is building for a rise going forwards. That said, my medium-term trading model for USO went short on December 21, 2016 and continues short. I update it on Fridays, so if it changes, I will post a comment here. A previous iteration of the model is shown below.

2016.12.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

## Sunday, January 8, 2017

### 2017.01.06 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.01.06 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

The gold cycle model suggests rising prices for the metal into 2017. The model may continue to shift the predictive curve to the right. Even if it does, the sharp slope of the predictive curve suggests that the price should not drop significantly going forwards. I have seen predictions for a much lower price for the metal, some well below $1000 which according to the model would be very unlikely. Whether the model remains somewhat useful going forwards will be determined in the next few months. My pattern recognition neural GDXJ medium term trading model went positive at the end of the 2016, so that it is aligned with the cycle model, at least for now.Below I show the previous iteration of the model, also here on the blog.

2016.12.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

## Sunday, January 1, 2017

### 2016.12.30 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.12.30 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The silver cycle model shows both a phase shift to the right as well a change in magnitude. If the model is valid, we should continue to see a continued rise in price, along with the usual volatility, if the price resolves as it did in June, 2016. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.12.02 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

## Tuesday, December 27, 2016

### 2016.12.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.12.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

The predictive curve shifted to the right, but the index also increased in magnitude so that that the Z-score is now much less than indicated in the previous month's chart. The previous iteration is shown below, which is also found here on the blog.

2016.11.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

## Monday, December 5, 2016

### 2016.12.02 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.12.02 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The predictive curve is far ahead of the actual price and the right phase shift has ended. A similar dissonance is seen in the recent gold and XOI.X cycle models. If the model is valid, the dissonance should resolve in the next four weeks with a rise in the silver price.

### 2016.12.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.12.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

This looks a bit like the XOI.X cycle model with its continued rightward phase shift. The predictive curve had a major inflection point in early November. Looking at the Z-score, the previous record high of 5.47 occurred on March 18, 1980. The current Z-score is 4.86. If the model is still valid, over the next four weeks the actual price should approach the predictive curve. Previous iterations of the model are found below on the blog.

## Saturday, November 26, 2016

### 2016.11.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.11.26 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

The rightward phase shift continues, and the model is predicting higher values for the index going forwards. Previous iterations of the model are shown below on the blog. I mentioned in a post below that my USO neural net trading model, which suggests trades about 6 times a year just went on Buy on 11/17/2016. I will post when it goes to Sell.

## Monday, October 24, 2016

### 2016.10.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

The phase change to the right continues, though the pace may have slowed down. There is some information to be gathered from the predicted magnitude suggesting that going forwards, prices much lower than the current levels are highly unlikely. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.09.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

## Sunday, October 16, 2016

### 2016.10.14 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.10.14 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart |

The model suggests we may have seen the peak for the index for a while, and it occurred a few weeks later than model prediction. A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.09.02 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart |

## Thursday, October 6, 2016

### 2016.10.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2016.10.05 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

A major divergence between the predicted price and actual price has occurred, but there is no rightward phase shift in the predictive curve at the moment. Looking back at the model history, this level of divergence where the Z-score exceeded 3.77 occurred a few times. In 1973.08.15, 1974.07.04, and 1980.03.27. On all those occasions, the actual price resolved to the upside within a six week period. So, the model may be broken, always a possibility, or a similar historical reversion will occur within a short time period. A previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.08.12 Gold Cycle Model Chart |

## Thursday, September 29, 2016

### 2019.09.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

The silver cycle model correctly predicted a decrease in price right after the model run shown below, and here on the blog. Of interest, the model is not showing a phase shift in time, but a magnitude shift in price. If the model is correct, we should see a local minimum in price some time in the next month, followed by a rising price into 2017. Of course, remembering that all models are wrong, but some are useful.

2019.08.12 Silver Cycle Model Chart |

## Wednesday, September 28, 2016

### 2016.09.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

The XOI.X model shows a continued right phase shift, and a major discordance between the predicted and actual index level. I note that a similar discordance occurred twice before, with Z-score > 6, on 1987.10.19 and 2008.10.15. Both times the index resolved to the upside within 6 weeks.A previous chart of the model output is shown below and here on the blog.

2016.08.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |

## Friday, September 23, 2016

### 2016.09.23 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.23 DJIA Cycle Model Chart |

The rightward phase shift continues, though still suggesting lower prices for the average. This is not surprising given the model uses data going back to 1896. There are a few multidecadal cycles for which a year or two of variance is well within error. Summing up: the chance for a price reversion is high, but so is the chance of QE 4,5 and 6! My biased view is that the model shows the kinds of cyclical pressures that the Fed is avoiding with its countercyclical monetary policies, with much success as measured by the DJIA price,

**for now.**

## Monday, September 5, 2016

### 2016.09.02 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2016.09.02 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart |

I posted this a bit earlier than usual because the NASDAQ cycle model is not experiencing a right phase shift at the moment, but seems to indicate that a major top may be forming given the predictive curve. If in the next few weeks NASDAQ begins to descend, the model suggests much lower prices going into Spring 2017. A reminder that all models are wrong but some are useful. Previous iterations of the model are found below and here and here on the blog.

2016.08.19 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart |

2016.07.29 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart |

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