Sunday, March 3, 2019

2019.03.01 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2019.03.01 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The silver cycle model shows a local maximum for silver prices has been reached as of the beginning of March, 2019. Prices are predicted to remain in a fairly tight range until July, 2019. Overall, model performance has been adequate, and a previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.



2019.01.29 Silver cycle Model Chart

Friday, March 1, 2019

2019.03.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2019.03.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The cycle model continues to suggest higher levels for the index going forwards.  There remains the possibility of a right phase shift, but the probability of much lower prices for the index is quite small, if the model is valid, of course!  A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.  The medium term model is still on Buy as shown here.




2019.01.11 XOIX.X Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, February 24, 2019

2019.02.22 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2019.02.22 Gold Cycle Model Chart



















As mentioned after the previous gold cycle model run, there appears to be a slowing down of the right phase shift, suggesting higher prices for the metal going forwards to the end of 2019.  The previous model run is shown below. The medium term gold model is back in buy mode.





2019.01.25 Gold cycle Model Chart
 

Saturday, February 16, 2019

2019.02.15 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2019.02.15 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

















The NASDAQ cycle model is suggesting a local maximum in the May, 2019 time frame, followed by a drop to 6000 by September, 2019. I will remind readers that the equity cycle models are less accurate than their commodity based brethren, and also that timing of reversals is usually more accurate than the magnitude at the time of the reversal, as shown below and here on the blog. The medium term  model output for NASDAQ is still on buy, as shown here.


2019.01.18 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

2019.01.29 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.29 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















The silver cycle model is suggesting a local maximum in the February/March 2019 time frame.  The previous run suggested an increase in silver price as shown below and here on the blog.



2018.12.14 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, January 26, 2019

2019.01.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















There is a hint here that the months long right phase shift may be on hold.  Much lower prices seem highly unlikely according to the decadal cycles, but we will have to see what happens in the next few months. Perhaps the Au market senses the end of QT.  A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.  On the medium term model output page you can see that GLD has been on a buy since 2018.08.21.



2018.12.07 Gold Cycle Model Chart




Sunday, January 20, 2019

2019.01.20 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.18 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

















With the usual caveat that equity based cycle models have less predictive value than their commodity based versions, this model seems to have captured the low in timing if not in magnitude, and is now suggesting a local maximum in the May, 2019 time frame. A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.  The medium-term timing model still has NASDAQ on buy as shown here.



2018.11.21 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart



Sunday, January 13, 2019

2019.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2019.01.11 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The XOI.X cycle model appears to have predicted the timing of the local minimum, but not the magnitude, which is common for these cycle models.  Going forwards, the model suggests a rise in the index over the next 6 months, and that the probability of lower values for the index is quite low, even with the possibility of a right phase shift.  A previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.  The medium term model for USO is also on buy as of 2018.12.31, as seen here.

That said, I wish all readers a prosperous and healthy New Year!



2018.11.25 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, December 16, 2018

2018.12.14 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2018.12.14 Silver cycle Model Chart


















The silver cycle model is suggesting a rise in price with a local maximum in the first quarter of 2019.  The previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.




2018.07.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, December 8, 2018

2018.12.07 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2018.12.07 Gold Cycle Model Chart



















The gold cycle model continues its right phase shift, but happily the model continues to converge. Much like 6 months ago, the model suggests the chance of a large price drop is small and the basing process continues unabated.  The previous run is shown below and here on the blog.  Note the change in the time and price axes.



2018.06.22 Gold cycle Model Chart

Sunday, November 25, 2018

2018.11.25 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2018.11.25 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The model continues to converge, but there is a continuing right phase shift and a wide discrepancy between actual and predicted suggesting lower prices are much less probable. Note also the change in the right axis descriptors, as the maximum has decreased from 2800 to just under 2200.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog. 

A surrogate oil index, USO, remains on sell according to the medium term models, and has been on sell since 2018.10.04.  This suggests the right phase shift of the cycle model may continue for a while. 




2018.09.07 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

2018.11.21 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

2018.11.21 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart


















The NASDAQ cycle model seems to be suggesting that a temporary low in the index has arrived. However, this needs to be taken in the context that my cycle models attached to equity indices have not performed well in the past few years, so this may be a random "hit." The previous run of the model is shown below and here on the blog.





2018.09.12 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, September 16, 2018

2018.09.14 NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

NASDAQ Cycle Model Chart

















As I mentioned in the past, I think the effect of the Federal Reserve Bank monetary expansion on the business cycle has rendered predictions based on cycle theory to be somewhat problematic, and that may not be a strong enough statement.  For commodity indices, the effect may be somewhat muted since they are based on lag times between resource extraction capex and output, and of course the mismatch that eventually occurs between supply and demand.  Those mismatches betwen supply and demand result in a stronger cyclical signal that can be picked up by the analyses. Nevertheless, the market cycle models may still provide some information which links economic activity with price, but I would be wary of using any of the cyclical market models for short or medium term investment purposes. I learned how to use pattern recognition algorithms to get a better handle on short and medium term movements.  I put examples of those efforts here on the blog, but I do not have the time or inclination to present real time updates.

Sunday, September 9, 2018

2018.09.07 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2018.09.07 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The model stubbornly suggests higher prices for the index going forward into the Fall and Winter. The level of divergence between actual and predicted values for the index exceed those observed on 2008.10.10, which were resolved in the next few weeks according to the prediction.  That said, there is also the possibility that the model is failing.  Remember that all models are wrong, but some are useful.  Previous runs of this model are shown below and here.


2018.07.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart


















The medium term model output shown here also suggests higher prices for USO.

Sunday, July 22, 2018

2018.07.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2018.07.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















The silver cycle model is, for the moment, in non-technical language, "in the groove." The model continues to suggest a local minimum in August, followed by a rise in the price into the Fall.  Two previous iterations of the model are shown below, and here and here on the blog.



2018.05.18 Silver Cycle Model Chart



















2018.04.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Friday, July 13, 2018

2018.07.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2018.07.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The XOI.X cycle model suggests higher values for the index moving into late Summer and Fall of 2018. The probability of a right phase shift is decreased because of the slope at the inflection point.  The previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.





2018.05.05 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, June 24, 2018

2018.06.25 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2018.06.22 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















The right phase shift continues, and I suspect that it may continue for several months.  This is due to model error in both cycle length and phase for several decadal cycles at play during this time.  The model does suggest that much lower prices for the gold fix are highly unlikely going forwards, but that the longer term basing at ~$1300 +/- 20% can be extended.  Extrapolating the model error as noted by the Z-score, I will hazard a guess that the right phase shift will end in the October and November 2018 time frame and either the model dies, or the price does begin to more closely match model prediction.

Saturday, May 19, 2018

2018.05.18 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2018.05.18 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The silver cycle model continues to suggest lower prices with a nadir in August, 2018. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.



2018.04.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, May 6, 2018

2018.05.04 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2018.05.04 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart



















This cycle model continues to phase shift to the right, but suggests that higher levels for the index are much more probable going into the Summer and Fall seasons.  The medium term model has shown USO to be in buy mode since 2018.04.10 as shown here. The previous output of the model is shown below and here on the blog.


2018.01.19 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

Saturday, April 21, 2018

2018.04.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2018.04.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The model continues to suggest that the local maximum was reached in late January, 2018, and lower prices are highly probable between now and August, 2018.




Sunday, February 18, 2018

2018.02.16 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2018.02.16 Gold Cycle Model Chart
















The right phase shift continues, but gold prices remained above $1300 as suggested by the previous model run.  Notice though that the magnitude has shifted lower compared to the previous model iteration.  I also just updated the medium term model output page, and GDXJ is again in buy mode.






Saturday, January 20, 2018

2018.01.19 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2018.01.19 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The cycle model for XOI.X suggests that the basing process over the past year may be ending, and there is strong pressure for an increase in the index values moving into Spring of 2018. One of the stronger cycles that appears in this model is ~11.6 years, which coincides with the solar cycle length, and sky watchers are aware that we are entering a solar minimum.  Of course, correlation does not prove causation, and the model can be wrong.  However, I find it pretty interesting!  My USO medium Term AI model also continues to suggest higher prices as well. The previous output of the cycle model is shown below and here on the blog.



2017.12.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart










Saturday, January 13, 2018

2017.01.11 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2018.01.11 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















This is the same model, and I thought it might not converge since it took more iterations than average, but it clearly shows, if it is correct, that the price has reached a local maximum at the beginning of this year. Going forward, we should expect to see lower silver prices.  As can happen with these kinds of models, the local maximum may have been predicted relatively well in time, however the magnitude was much lower than expected.

For anyone who has purchased a silver model since 2017.01.01, please contact me via the secure portal on the site, and I will be happy to send you a new version of the long term predictions at no cost.

The previous iteration can be found here and below.


2017.10.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart




Saturday, December 23, 2017

2017.12.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart



2017.12.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The XOI.X cycle model continues to suggest higher levels for the index going forward into the Spring of 2018.  As can be seen from the previous iteration shown below and here on the blog, the level is increasing as predicted, suggesting perhaps a slow down of the annoying right phase shift, though there is still a large discrepancy between the predicted and actual curves.  In any case, lower levels for the index are highly unlikely going forward, if the model is correct.


2017.09.22 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart








Sunday, November 19, 2017

2017.11.17 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.11.17 Gold cycle Model Chart

















As it turned out, the rightward phase shift in the gold cycle model continued, and while it looks  highly unlikely that the gold price will drop below ~$1300 going into 2018, there is no guarantee that the right phase shift will end soon. 

Sunday, October 22, 2017

2017.10.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.10.20 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The silver cycle model suggests a December peak for the silver price. The Z-score suggests a high probability of a short term rise in the silver price. Over the past year, a Z-score of ~2 has adequately predicted turning points. A previous iteration of the model is shown on the blog and below.


2017.08.25 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Monday, September 25, 2017

2017.09.25 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

XOI.X Cycle Model Chart


















The XOI.X cycle model may have ceased its right phase shift, and is predicting much higher prices for the index.  In support, the medium term model for USO is also pointing to higher prices.  The previous model run is shown below and here on the blog.


2017.05.12 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart