Econocasts

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Sunday, December 18, 2011

2011.12.18 Experimental Amex Oil Index (XOI)


















Actual / Predicted / Z-score
1170.19 / 1174.97 / 0.17


I have not kicked the tires on this model so it still rates as experimental. Originally I produced it as a favor to Zero_Sum from daneric's site. Here it is again, warts and all.

Previous iterations below:.

2011.10.12 - AMEX Oil Index (XOI.X)
2011.09.25 - AMEX Oil Index (XOI.X)
2011.09.14 - AMEX Oil Index (XOI.X)
2011.08.24 - AMEX Oil Index (XOI.X)


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6 comments:

  1. AnonymousDecember 19, 2011 at 4:16 AM

    Thank you Paolo for the favour, I appreciate it.

    Charles Nenner at the Charles Research Centre states "[...] 2012 will be a tale of two halves. “I still think we’ll see a little bit more positivity in equity markets until the middle of 2012, then they’ll really be in trouble" (Business Spectator par 3).

    Martin Armstrong from Princeton Economics states "The world may hold together until June. From then on it appears to be starting to go nuts going into 2014" (Whats up with Gold p.3).

    We have two experts here, who both follow cycles. I've followed your work closely, and there are important turning points that match up with the Economic Confidence Model. For example, the "monthly long term predictions: DJIA" has a major low at about 7.5/10ths of a year in, which coincides with ECM 2014.68 turn date.

    Yes, it is true Charles Nenner's view differs from your models, and so does Martin's. But it is interesting to note, nonetheless.

    Keep up the good work, I believe you are on the verge of something big. Sounds a bit silly, but maybe apply for a wider audience via Seeking Alpha? Shame that not more people know about this blog.

    Economic Confidence Model: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2009/Mar/armstrong8-6yrcycle.jpg

    Sources: http://charlesnenner.com/index.php
    http://www.inflateordie.com/files/Whats%20Up%20With%20Gold%2012-15-2011.pdf

    -Zero_Sum

    ReplyDelete
  2. PaoloDecember 19, 2011 at 4:46 AM

    Thanks! It is exciting to test these concepts at such an opportune time.

    ReplyDelete
  3. El ViejoDecember 20, 2011 at 9:41 AM

    http://pragcap.com/gary-shilling-prepare-for-a-global-recession

    ReplyDelete
  4. PaoloDecember 20, 2011 at 10:42 AM

    That was good - Gary Shilling ends with: I'm not a bear, I'm a realist!"

    ReplyDelete
  5. El ViejoDecember 20, 2011 at 12:20 PM

    Velocity as a predictor:
    http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec11/TLCIA12-11.html

    ReplyDelete
  6. PaoloDecember 20, 2011 at 2:26 PM

    One might add to that the ridiculous bid-to-cover for the 4-week US T Bill - 9.07 with a rate of 0.00%.

    That has to be some kind of record.

    ReplyDelete