The last few times that the spread between the the actual price curve and the model prediction curve reached 2 SD units, a correction occurred in less than five trading days.
Links to previous silver cycle model charts
2011.10.07
2011.09.30
2011.09.23
2011.07.15
2011.06.26
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Hello,
ReplyDeleteI recently came across your site, and am very interested in your work. A unique way of forecasting.
I have one problem however, when looking at the charts, that being it is hard to tell on the longer-term charts what the exact level of the yellow line is. The short-term charts are ok, because the data is not as condensed.
Would it be possible to list the actual level on the chart somewhere?
Keep up the nice blog.
Regards
Ollie
Hi Oliver, I've been trying to figure out how to deal with the "condensation" problem on the long term charts for a while. One option is to give readers access to the output file for the long term charts from which the curves are generated. I will see how long it takes to do that and if I can fit it in my schedule. This is a good option if you are interested in the historical values of the Z-score.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, what I can easily do is give the exact values for the last set of points on the short term chart, if you think it might be helpful.
Thanks for your kind thoughts.
Cheers, Paolo