Econocasts

▼

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Cycle Models: DJIA Long $ Short Term Predictions



















Today, the DJIA actual price curve has moved almost 2 standard deviation units from the model curve, so here it is for the record.  This is an extreme value suggesting that a correction, which would bring the two curves together, is probably not far off.  Or this model is broken.  I'd vote for the former, but I'm biased.
at

7 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 11, 2011 at 6:59 PM

    I like how you added commentary to charts recently, it adds a bit of a personal touch. As always, thanks for the free public service.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousOctober 11, 2011 at 7:12 PM

    cthe dow correction to what level?

    ReplyDelete
  3. PaoloOctober 11, 2011 at 11:54 PM

    you're welcome. I like to contribute web content as well as consuming it.

    I don't understand the 7:12 post, sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Rajeev BharolOctober 12, 2011 at 3:10 AM

    Thanks a lot.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousOctober 12, 2011 at 10:08 AM

    Sympathetic and interesting

    ReplyDelete
  6. PaoloOctober 12, 2011 at 1:16 PM

    Thanks Rajeev, I'm happy you find the info helpful.

    On today's (2011.10.12) AM price action on the DJIA, where a quick run of the generating function now shows one of the widest historical spreads between the actual price curve and the predicted price curve. Expected price = 9785 and actual price is 11580. Amazing. This is beginning to look like 2008. Or the model is failing. I'll vote for the former.

    ReplyDelete
  7. PaoloOctober 13, 2011 at 12:17 AM

    Simpatico e interessante?

    ReplyDelete