tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post7596216107223048911..comments2023-06-20T04:55:27.614-04:00Comments on BEST: 2012.05.01 Long Term DJIA $ Gold $ Silver $ OilPaolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18005061596776141679noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-86073013375755930412012-05-06T15:23:04.488-04:002012-05-06T15:23:04.488-04:00Hi Sinuhet, I can see your point with regards to t...Hi Sinuhet, I can see your point with regards to the Dow/Gold chart. I have never used the methodology on a ratio, so I will have to investigate what kind of statistical structure a ratio might exhibit that could cause analytic problems. If I find that it would be reasonable to make a cycle model out of the Gold/Dow derivative time series, I'll begin to work on it. These kinds of cycle models take me some time to put together, so it may be a few weeks to a few months before I know if it is possible. I'll post the progress in the blog page Blog Notes. Thank you for dropping in and especially for your input! - PaoloPaolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18005061596776141679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-57642764925820168652012-05-06T12:19:38.544-04:002012-05-06T12:19:38.544-04:00Dear Paolo, thank you for you work. I am following...Dear Paolo, thank you for you work. I am following your blog for some time. Silver and gold worked pretty well, Dow Jones not... I know you write that one should consider the models as a guide to possible turning points and not to accept the magnitude of the move. However I was thinking would it make sence to back test your Dow Jones and gold model in the way that you would make a model for Dow/Gold ratio alone? Does it make a sence for you. It could be another helpful tool. If you study this ratio it tends to keep in its 20-year log-channel from one extreme to the other one. I have nice charts, prehaps I can make them free on Stockcharts so you can see what I mean. Basically the "big picture"of historic movement you can see here: http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/DowGoldRatio.php<br />I did some studies of each particular move between extremes and it seems that all the time stays the ratio within its channel (in log scale). I am looking forward for your answer. Thank you SinuhetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com