tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post5535548396141859705..comments2023-06-20T04:55:27.614-04:00Comments on BEST: 2016.09.27 XOI.X Cycle Model ChartPaolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18005061596776141679noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-78619832245378092962016-10-01T12:54:55.759-04:002016-10-01T12:54:55.759-04:00Hi Paolo,
Great modelling once again, crude price...Hi Paolo,<br /><br />Great modelling once again, crude prices (WTI) has seen recent daily, weekly and monthly volatility expansions that are indicative of a sustained move to be expected - although the direction is unknown until breakout.<br /><br />I'm biased towards the long side for numerous technical and fundamental reasons, but I recognise that equally valid reasons exist on the short side. I suspect that on some level, such a situation would create a sustained move in crude prices and XOI as a result, where one side is "convinced" that the statistics, numbers or macro evidence supports their prediction.<br /><br />Your modelling is another extremely helpful piece of evidence in my overall considerations. I observed that XOI closed above 1,150 this week and has began to "turn" the relatively high Z-score back down. A sustained break of 1,200 should herald a technical breakout and confirmation of your model.<br /><br />The target of 1,950 is "surprisingly" high but that is probably my psychological conditioning due to sustained low oil prices since $147 per barrel several years ago - especially with the dramatic falls through 2015.<br /><br />I also personally have "surprisingly" high price targets for WTI that correlate with other analysts, but am sceptical of them even though I'm bullish and recognise the risks of being so. I cognisant that for as many well-evidenced or structured bullish arguments, whether technical or fundamental, there are equally solid bearish cases for being short.<br /><br />Interesting times ahead!<br /><br />Mr. Anon<br /><br />PS: It was me that purchased your XOI chart two weeks ago - great stuff and a useful guide.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com