tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post3433488819036234128..comments2023-06-20T04:55:27.614-04:00Comments on BEST: 2015.02.20 Gold Cycle Model ChartPaolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18005061596776141679noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-38297637304818809242015-02-23T06:20:50.970-05:002015-02-23T06:20:50.970-05:00The predictions for gold, whilst optimistic, do no...The predictions for gold, whilst optimistic, do not seem to reflect the reality of the market - below $1200 an ounce today. The arrest of the cycle - by those with vested interests - through the selling of naked shorts have clearly carried the day. <br />My question is how can ANY model be accurate when such manipulation is at work?<br />Thank you.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11757262890074926686noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-61576759001397124462015-02-22T12:19:50.102-05:002015-02-22T12:19:50.102-05:00If you look at Long Term Charts I have placed the ...If you look at <a href="http://econocasts.blogspot.com/p/the-lonf-term-cycle-charts.html" rel="nofollow">Long Term Charts</a> I have placed the VIX Cycle chart and Z-score back to 1990. I think this helps placing the current Z-score in context, which is now 3.39. It was higher than that once around 1999. So, the probability of a reversal is quite high, and I would expect the VIX to increase. However, these are models of reality and not reality, and certainly the VIX cycle model has its limitations in that it cannot capture the short time spikes either way. however, as a fuzzy long term telescope, it continues to suggest, on average, higher prices.If the VIX was stuck at >3 for a period of time, say a few weeks, then I would not put much weight on the prediction. So far, tht has not happened.Paolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18005061596776141679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-35263041944626237982015-02-22T10:57:08.412-05:002015-02-22T10:57:08.412-05:00How high (or low) can a z score get before a model...How high (or low) can a z score get before a model is rendered invalid?<br /><br />For example VIX z score probably over 4 by now. Is z caore of 5, 8, 10+ possible? Or is there a maximum limit before recalculation becomes necessary?PayDayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165480697513927357noreply@blogger.com